WMD

Te lezen op Fark:

First, try to get into the head of Saddam Hussein, who is a very intelligent guy. Evil, sure. But his brain has been badly underestimated. I’ve figured him out…

Anyway, here goes:

The wmd were all destroyed by 1994, at the latest. We have to realize a couple of things. After the Gulf War, Saddam realized that: A. detection of wmd in his country would bring an invasion by the USA, with or without U.N. approval, and B. the USA would never allow the sanctions to be lifted with him still in power. So, his conclusion was that the sanctions were preserving his rule, and the sanctions were in place until such time as Iraq could be shown to be free of wmd. That means it was in his interest to preserve the sanctions as status quo.

With me so far?

OK. So, Saddam understood that the inspectors might eventually get lucky, or someone would betray him, or the CIA might eventually figure out where they were. So, he had them secretly destroyed, probably soon after the Gulf War. Secretly because he did NOT want it known they were destroyed, because then the inspections would cease, and the USA would not tolerate Saddam running the show in absence of sanctions. He allowed the USA to continue assuming he had the wmd and actually contributed to the suspicion by leading the inspectors on a merry chase, knowing that political realities in the USA and elsewhere worked against the USA in its desire to invade and depose him. He also knew the U.N. inspectors could never, ever convince the Americans that Iraq was wmd-free. In other words, he left the whiff of suspicion and played the political odds, and the containment of Iraq ironically ensured his survival! And it worked for twelve years. Meanwhile, he could (ironically truthfully) say there was no wmd and know the Americans would assume he was lying.

It is also probable that he had them destroyed with the knowledge of only very few other Iraqis, and this explains the mystery surrounding the whole affair. Even high-ranking Iraqis didn’t really know what had happened. As to the notion that Saddam would give them to the Syrians or sub-national terror groups is ludicrous. Then they would be out of his control, and any use of them could be blamed on him, meaning once again the end of his regime.

So, we will find no wmd in Iraq because they are long gone. And they didn’t go to Osama or Syria, either. Saddam was playing the biggest bluff in history, and it worked!

That, my friends, is the answer to the puzzle of the wmd’s.

I hope they catch him alive for debriefing, because I’ll betcha that is exactly how it actually happened. Even deposed and on the run for his life, he HAS to chuckle to himself over the whole affair from time to time.

Oh, and this guerrilla war we’re seeing? Saddam has been laying the groundwork for this for years, or at least since Bush was inaugurated. That’s bad news, kids!

Dat is zo ongeveer wat ik er ook van denk.

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<insert standard disclaimer>

Alles wat hier staat is mijn eigen opinie. Het wordt niet nagelezen of goedgekeurd door mijn werkgever voor het on-line komt, en ik bied geen enkele garantie voor kwaliteit of correctheid.

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